Arbitrage-free implied volatility surfaces for options on single stock futures

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In financevolatility arbitrage or vol arb implied volatility surfaces trading options on single stock futures a type of statistical arbitrage that is implemented by trading a delta neutral portfolio of an option and its underlying. The objective is to take advantage of differences between the implied volatility [1] of the option, and a forecast of future realized volatility of the option's underlying.

In volatility arbitrage, volatility rather than price is used as the unit of relative measure, i. To an option trader engaging in volatility arbitrage, an option contract is a way to speculate in the volatility of the underlying rather than a directional bet on the underlying's price. If a trader buys options as part of a delta-neutral portfolio, he is said to be long volatility. If he sells options, he is said to be short volatility.

So long as the trading is done delta-neutral, buying an option is a bet that the underlying's future realized volatility will be high, while selling an option is a bet that future realized volatility will be low.

Because of the put—call parityit doesn't matter if the options traded are calls or puts. This is true because put-call parity posits a risk neutral equivalence relationship between a call, a put and some amount of the underlying. Therefore, being long a delta- hedged call results in the same returns as being long a delta-hedged put. Volatility arbitrage is not "true economic arbitrage" in the sense of a risk free profit opportunity.

It relies on predicting the future direction of implied volatility. Even portfolio based volatility arbitrage approaches which seek to "diversify" volatility risk can experience " black swan " events when changes in implied volatility are correlated across multiple securities and even markets. Long Term Capital Management used a volatility arbitrage approach. To engage in volatility arbitrage, a trader must first forecast the underlying's future realized volatility.

This is typically done by computing the historical daily returns for the underlying for a given past sample such as days the typical number of trading days in a year for the US stock market. The trader may also use other factors, such as whether the period was unusually volatile, or if there are going to be unusual events in the near future, to adjust his forecast. As described in option valuation techniques, there are a number of factors that are used to determine the theoretical value of an option.

However, in practice, the only two inputs to the model that change during the day are the price of the underlying and the volatility. Therefore, the theoretical price of an option can be expressed as:. Because implied volatility of an option can remain constant even as the underlying's value changes, traders use it as a measure of relative value rather than the option's market price. Even though the option's price is higher at the second measurement, the option is still considered cheaper because the implied volatility is lower.

This is because the trader can implied volatility surfaces trading options on single stock futures stock needed to hedge the long call at a higher price. Armed with a forecast volatility, and capable of measuring an option's market price in terms of implied volatility, the trader is ready to begin a volatility arbitrage trade.

In the first case, the trader buys the option and hedges with the underlying to make a delta neutral portfolio. In the second case, the trader sells the option and then hedges the position. Over the holding period, the trader will realize a profit on the trade if the underlying's realized volatility is closer to his forecast than it is to the market's forecast i.

The profit is extracted from the trade through the continuous re-hedging required to keep the portfolio delta-neutral. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Application to Skew Risk". Energy derivative Freight derivative Inflation derivative Property derivative Weather derivative. Activist shareholder Distressed securities Implied volatility surfaces trading options on single stock futures arbitrage Special situation.

Algorithmic trading Day trading High-frequency trading Prime brokerage Program trading Proprietary trading. Arbitrage pricing implied volatility surfaces trading options on single stock futures Assets under management Black—Scholes model Greeks finance: Vulture funds Family offices Financial endowments Fund of hedge funds High-net-worth individual Institutional investors Insurance companies Investment banks Merchant banks Pension funds Sovereign wealth funds.

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Volatility smiles are implied volatility patterns that arise in pricing financial options. It corresponds to finding one single parameter implied volatility that is needed to be modified for the Black-Scholes formula to fit market prices. In particular for a given expiration, options whose strike price differs substantially from the underlying asset's price command higher prices and thus implied volatilities than what is suggested by standard option pricing models.

These options are said to be either deep in-the-money or out-of-the-money. Graphing implied volatilities against strike prices for a given expiry yields a skewed "smile" instead of the expected flat surface.

The pattern differs across various markets. Equity options traded in American markets did not show a volatility smile before the Crash of but began showing one afterwards. This anomaly implies deficiencies in the standard Black-Scholes option pricing model which assumes constant volatility and log-normal distributions of underlying asset returns.

Empirical asset returns distributions, however, tend to exhibit fat-tails kurtosis and skew. Modelling the volatility smile is an active area of research in quantitative finance , and better pricing models such as the stochastic volatility model partially address this issue. A related concept is that of term structure of volatility , which describes how implied volatility differs for related options with different maturities.

An implied volatility surface is a 3-D plot that plots volatility smile and term structure of volatility in a consolidated three-dimensional surface for all options on a given underlying asset. In the Black—Scholes model, the theoretical value of a vanilla option is a monotonic increasing function of the volatility of the underlying asset.

This means it is usually possible to compute a unique implied volatility from a given market price for an option. This implied volatility is best regarded as a rescaling of option prices which makes comparisons between different strikes, expirations, and underlyings easier and more intuitive. When implied volatility is plotted against strike price , the resulting graph is typically downward sloping for equity markets, or valley-shaped for currency markets.

For markets where the graph is downward sloping, such as for equity options, the term " volatility skew " is often used. For other markets, such as FX options or equity index options, where the typical graph turns up at either end, the more familiar term " volatility smile " is used.

For example, the implied volatility for upside i. However, the implied volatilities of options on foreign exchange contracts tend to rise in both the downside and upside directions.

In equity markets, a small tilted smile is often observed near the money as a kink in the general downward sloping implicit volatility graph. Sometimes the term "smirk" is used to describe a skewed smile. Market practitioners use the term implied-volatility to indicate the volatility parameter for ATM at-the-money option.

Adjustments to this value are undertaken by incorporating the values of Risk Reversal and Flys Skews to determine the actual volatility measure that may be used for options with a delta which is not Butterfly , on the other hand, is a strategy consisting of: It is helpful to note that implied volatility is related to historical volatility , but the two are distinct.

Implied volatility, in contrast, is determined by the market price of the derivative contract itself, and not the underlying. Therefore, different derivative contracts on the same underlying have different implied volatilities as a function of their own supply and demand dynamics. For options of different maturities, we also see characteristic differences in implied volatility. However, in this case, the dominant effect is related to the market's implied impact of upcoming events.

For instance, it is well-observed that realized volatility for stock prices rises significantly on the day that a company reports its earnings.

Correspondingly, we see that implied volatility for options will rise during the period prior to the earnings announcement, and then fall again as soon as the stock price absorbs the new information.

Options that mature earlier exhibit a larger swing in implied volatility sometimes called "vol of vol" than options with longer maturities. Other option markets show other behavior. For instance, options on commodity futures typically show increased implied volatility just prior to the announcement of harvest forecasts.

Options on US Treasury Bill futures show increased implied volatility just prior to meetings of the Federal Reserve Board when changes in short-term interest rates are announced. The market incorporates many other types of events into the term structure of volatility. For instance, the impact of upcoming results of a drug trial can cause implied volatility swings for pharmaceutical stocks. The anticipated resolution date of patent litigation can impact technology stocks, etc.

Volatility term structures list the relationship between implied volatilities and time to expiration. The term structures provide another method for traders to gauge cheap or expensive options. It is often useful to plot implied volatility as a function of both strike price and time to maturity. This defines the absolute implied volatility surface ; changing coordinates so that the price is replaced by delta yields the relative implied volatility surface.

The implied volatility surface simultaneously shows both volatility smile and term structure of volatility. Option traders use an implied volatility plot to quickly determine the shape of the implied volatility surface, and to identify any areas where the slope of the plot and therefore relative implied volatilities seems out of line.

The graph shows an implied volatility surface for all the put options on a particular underlying stock price. The Z-axis represents implied volatility in percent, and X and Y axes represent the option delta, and the days to maturity. Note that to maintain put-call parity , a 20 delta put must have the same implied volatility as an 80 delta call.

For this surface, we can see that the underlying symbol has both volatility skew a tilt along the delta axis , as well as a volatility term structure indicating an anticipated event in the near future.

An implied volatility surface is static: How the surface changes as the spot changes is called the evolution of the implied volatility surface. Methods of modelling the volatility smile include stochastic volatility models and local volatility models. For a discussion as to the various alternate approaches developed here, see Financial economics Challenges and criticism and Black—Scholes model The volatility smile. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

Options, Futures and Other Derivatives 5th ed. Application to Skew Risk". Retrieved from " https: Mathematical finance Options finance. Views Read Edit View history. This page was last edited on 29 January , at By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.